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Credit gauges
The plumbing, straight from the Fed’s own data.
Credit stress (OFR)
The credit part of the Treasury’s OFR Financial Stress Index, built from corporate bond spreads in the US, Europe, Japan and emerging markets. Zero is an average day; above zero is more stress than usual. Daily. Details
Corporate bond spread (Fed)
What US companies pay over Treasurys on their bonds, averaged by Fed economists across thousands of issues (the Gilchrist–Zakrajšek spread). Monthly. Details
Bond fear premium (Fed)
The part of corporate bond spreads that default risk doesn’t explain: what investors charge just for being nervous. Above zero is more nervous than usual. Monthly. Details
Recession odds (Fed model)
The chance of a US recession within 12 months that the Fed staff’s bond premium model gives. Monthly. Details
Banks tightening loans
Net share of banks making business loans harder to get, from the Fed’s quarterly loan officer survey. Details
Bank loans to nonbanks
What banks lend to private credit funds and other nonbanks (Fed H.8). Growth means more back-leverage. A drop means banks are pulling it. Details