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Credit default swaps
CoreWeave 5-yr CDS about 1,145bp; Oracle at a record
- Status
- flashing
- Trend
- steady
- Layer
- 4. Funds feel pressure
- Evidence dated
- Oct 21, 2026
- Source
- CNBC: CoreWeave's market confidence erodes
- Checked
- Oct 26, 2026
Score
Score 100 of 100 · news 100. Hard data is scored against its own last few years: a normal day is 0, worse than 90% of its history is 80.
What happened
CoreWeave's five-year CDS hit about 1,145bp on Oct 21 (peak 1,194bp), which prices in about 61% risk-neutral odds of default over five years at 40% recovery (Bloomberg put it above 60%). That's what the market charges for the risk, and it runs higher than real-world odds. A secondhand report has it easing back to about 1,088bp (unverified). Oracle's CDS set a record near 288–315bp in mid-October.
What we watch
Credit default swap prices on CoreWeave, Oracle and other AI spenders. Rising is watch; CoreWeave above 1,000bp or records on the big names is flashing.
Past readings
| Checked | Status | Trend | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2026 | flashing | steady | CoreWeave 5-yr CDS about 1,145bp; Oracle at a record |
| Oct 25, 2026 | flashing | worsening | CoreWeave 5-yr CDS about 1,145bp; Oracle at a record |